FROZEN:SHALL WE EXPECT THE NEW ICE AGE BY 2030?

 

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WHAT  CLIMATE SHOCK MAY THE EARTH LET US EXPERIENCE IN THE FUTURE?

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“We have to face the  reality of climate change.It is arguably the biggest threat we are facing today.”

-William Hague

 

The climate change. The political question number one for the  liberal oriented governments and the main  reason  for some of conservative opponents to provoke them. They can not understand that the history of Earth evolution has nothing to do with liberalism or conservatism but with the greedy corporatism of the whole mankind. Politicians are changeable but their destructive policy cost us our future. The same trend of irrational behaviour towards environment is happening worldwide: in America, Europe, Russia, Asia, Africa and Australia. The seed of human madness is planted everywhere and the human race will harvest the cataclysm very soon if not sooner.

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It is not only about the climate change and the global warming caused by unlimited industrial aggravation, it is about the fact that we bite this Earth without regrets, exploit  without controls, demolish without break and at the end of the day, we expect it will endure for us. This blue planet can live without us but we can not live without it. At this moment, the people are the worst pest ever and I can only imagine how the pests will be treated if we don’t push the button for back drive.

The global warming issue is old as our greenhouse effects used to damage the atmosphere. The Earth’s average  surface  temperature is getting higher due to the greenhouse gases emitted from burnt fossil fuels  or deforestation (e.g. carbon dioxide CO2) because the heat has no chance to escape from the Earth and the planet increase the basic temperature. Now, when we think of so many industrial complexes around the world, it doesn’t surprise the high level of greenhouse gas emissions.Unfortunately,  the mutual  negotiations among countries to work on alternative assets to stop the Earth’s  temperature alert have all failed. The stubborn anti-environment  global policy that has been led for years  is based on financial interests of big players and not on the interests of the worldwide population and nature. Everyone wants the piece of cake and almost no one thinks of the future. Here and now. The concern about what will happen tomorrow it is not anyone’s business and for sure doesn’t bring profit.

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The impact that global warming has on the complete nature and wildlife habitat is visible on every single step and the Earth is experiencing the cancer metastasis. It is late to amput  the critical points but there is always a thought that something could be done before we are really finally erased as the race that didn’t make.

But, behind the global warming, there is one other issue which seems to concern scientists lately. The Earth is  in the interglacial phase of  evolution (Holocene), the stage known as times without large ice-sheets which were typical for a glacial period or ice age. The most recent glacial stage was between 120,000 and 11,500 years ago and since then, the planet is enjoying the Holocene. Now, the question is , when will be the new ice age, considering the all signs by the road? Majority of the climatologist believe and warn it will be very soon, at least the initial or short phase of ice age.

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The environmentalists scream that the new ice age will be the outcome of human unlimited activity against the Earth but the facts are telling us something different.Actually, the potential glacial period will be the result of diminishing solar activity, according to the study from 2016:“It’s based on a mathematical model that shows the sun might ‘quiet’ down in the coming years thus impacting our climate as well.A few months ago, NASA published a study showing that Antarctica is actually gaining more ice than it is losing. They made the announcement after using satellites to examine the heights of the region’s ice sheet. The findings contradict the prevailing theory that Antarctica has actually been shrinking, however.The most recent research to examine this topic comes from the National Astronomy Meeting in Wales, where Valentina Zharkova, a mathematics professor from Northumbria University (UK), presented a model that can predict what solar cycles will look like far more accurately than was previously possible. She states that the model can predict their influence with an accuracy of 97 percent, and says it is showing that Earth is heading for a ‘mini ice age’ in approximately fifteen years.”

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In spite of predicted  freezing, the topic is hot. It seems that scientists almost deny the importance of  global warming but it is far away from it. They do not deny it, they research further and see the future frame of the climate problems. The climatology is not alone in this but rather relied on astronomy and astrophysics. So, basically, the maths tells us that our Earth is getting slowly into the ice age and that we will be frozen very soon. No, we will not be frozen but we will experience the severe decrease of global temperature This type of climate has been recorded in  history due to the reduced solar activity and its cooling:” In 17th century, though, there was a prolonged reduction in solar activity called the Maunder minimum, which lasted roughly from 1645 to 1700. During this period, there were only about 50 sunspots instead of the usual 40-50 thousand sunspots. ” Very cold winters and very cold summers, especially in Europe and North America. The Maunder minimum turned the river Thames and the Danube into froze, Moscow River was every six month covered by ice and the Greenland was in glaciers.

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Coming out with the term “Ice age” is too much, not only for the  scientists but also for the ordinary people However, the expression “Little Ice age” sounds more positive and sounds like a chance for all of us to survive the Sun’s cool phase. There were so many predictions that the Earth will burn because of the high level of Sun’s activity but here we go again, now the new model shows us with the maths precision that we might have glacial times by 2030, when it is expected the Maunder minimum of the sun. This is just a spekulation and it could be all but not the “Little Ice Age” but the Earth has a lot of preparations to get into the real ice age. It doesn’t happen overnight. First, the changes in the Earth’s orbit bring the less sunlight, known as  insolation which hits then the northern hemisphere during summer. Then, the ice sheets will melt less and will grow in the period of thousands of years. The complete cooling will make ice sheets to move faster and cover more and more of the Earth. This is a long journey for our planet, it could last around  10,000 to 20,000 years for Earth to be brought into an ice age. Regarding the effects of CO2 emissions on possible ice ages, the scientists claim that it is directly linked:“The more CO2 there is in the atmosphere, the lower insolation needs to drop to trigger glaciation.”

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Many people when they hear the stories about Ice Age, they immediately think of so many movies illustrated this phenomena.The famous one was “The day After Tomorrow” and almost each of us remembers the tragedy of trying to survive under the snow storm. If there could be some nice death, it is definitely the white death because you are gone while you are falling into sleep. The dangerous winter is not on the corner, that is assured but there will be some outputs of the solar reduced energy and this Earth will feel that, more or less. That must not justify the absence of  resistance to the greenhouse effects on the global level and we all must be aware of the silent interchanges that Earth takes.It will hit us suddenly and  merciless  if we do not stop to destroy what doesn’t belong to us.

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Maybe one day, the day after tomorrow, we will wake up and see that winter lasts forever and that sunshine is lost. Then it is too late to ask anyone:“Where will you be?”

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7 thoughts on “FROZEN:SHALL WE EXPECT THE NEW ICE AGE BY 2030?”

  1. Thank you, Sarah, for your arduous research and your very well-written and very well-presented article !

    I love your opening statement by William Hague “We have to face the reality of climate change.It is arguably the biggest threat we are facing today.”

    I absolutely concur with that statement, as the mathematical curve over time is a scientific proof of that, and as a mathematician and scientist, I find the data and statistics clearly convincing !

    As you very well pointed out, Sarah, the political arena should not have a say one way or the other when it comes to mathematical and scientific facts.

    The reality is, according to the mathematical models/curves, presented herein, and other ones I researched, that there is scientific proof as to climate change!

    The discussion is then “what is causing climate change?” The answer is not as simple as it may appear. However, there is a scientific answer and it comprises two components.

    As you stated, Sarah, the first is the effect of the gas emissions, which causes the greenhouse effect. This causes a rise in the earth’s temperature. The second is the established fact that the sun undergoes a period of low activity, which leads to a reduction in the earth’s temperature.

    It sounds paradoxical, but it isn’t ! The two trends occur simultaneously, as the first is induced by humans, whereas the second is caused by nature and its normal cycles over thousands if not millions of years.

    As you mentioned, Sarah, in your article, professor Zharkova and her team predict that there will be a mini ice age and she said it would be less than three solar cycles, i.e. shorter than 30 years.

    There are also contradiction among scientists as can be seen in the following statement I copied from ucsusa.org
    “Dr. James E. Hansen, the top climate scientist at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), believes that the world has little time to waste in reversing its current trend toward global warming. In late 2005, however, Dr. Hansen’s ability to voice his concerns about global warming was severely compromised by NASA public affairs officials. After he called on the United States to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in a December 2005 lecture, Dr. Hansen found that NASA officials began reviewing and filtering public statements and press interviews in an effort to limit his ability (as well as that of other government scientists) to publicly express scientific opinions that clashed with the Bush administration’s views on global warming.”

    In the end, we will have to live it to ascertain the veracity of the various mathematical models to predict the global temperatures.

    Thank you, Sarah, for bringing this to light, as it is a topic of utmost importance!

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Sarah’s article reminds me of ‘The Year Without a Summer (1816): severe climate abnormalities caused average global temperatures to decrease by 0.4–0.7 °C (0.7–1.3 °F). This resulted in deaths, illness and major food shortages across The Northern Hemisphere.

    Evidence suggests that the anomaly was predominantly a volcanic winter event caused by the massive 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora in the then Dutch East Indies (i.e. the largest eruption in at least 1,300 years after the extreme weather events of 535–536 CE). Plus the 1814 eruption of Mayon, in The Philippines. The Earth had already been in a centuries-long period of global cooling that started in the 14th century. Known today as the Little Ice Age, it had already caused considerable agricultural distress in Europe. The Little Ice Age’s existing cooling was aggravated by the eruption of Tambora, which occurred during its concluding decades.

    Sarah’s article touches upon possible human reactions to such natural and or human-borne cataclysms. In 1815, Europe, still recuperating from The Napoleonic Wars, suffered from food shortages. Food riots broke out in Britain and France, and grain warehouses were looted. The violence was worst in landlocked Switzerland, where famine caused the government to declare a national emergency. Huge storms and abnormal rainfall with flooding of Europe’s major rivers (including The Rhine) are attributed to the event, as is the August frost. A major typhus epidemic occurred in Ireland between 1816 and 1819; precipitated by the famine caused by the Year Without a Summer. An estimated 100,000 Irish perished during this period. A BBC documentary, using figures compiled in Switzerland, estimated that the fatality rates in 1816 were twice that of average years, giving an approximate European fatality total of 200,000 deaths.

    New England (North America) experienced major consequences from the eruption of Tambora: the corn crop was significantly advanced in New England and the eruption caused the crop to fail. In the summer of 1816, corn was reported to have ripened so badly that no more than a quarter of it was usable for food. The crop failures in New England, Canada and parts of Europe caused the price of wheat, grains, meat, vegetables, butter, milk and flour to rise sharply. This brought about more unemployment, more crime and more sickness.

    In China, unusually low temperatures in summer and autumn devastated rice production in Yunnan; resulting in widespread famine. The cold weather killed trees, rice crops and even water buffalo, in northern China. Floods destroyed many remaining crops. Also, Mount Tambora’s eruption disrupted China’s monsoon season; resulting in overwhelming floods in the Yangtze Valley. In India, the delayed summer monsoon caused late torrential rains that aggravated the spread of cholera from a region near The River Ganges in Bengal to as far as Moscow.

    Cool European temperatures and heavy rains resulted in failed harvests in Britain and Ireland. Families in Wales travelled long distances as refugees, begging for food. Famine was prevalent in north and southwest Ireland, following the failure of wheat, oats and potato harvests. In Germany, the crisis was severe: food prices rose sharply. With the cause of the problems unknown, people demonstrated in front of grain markets and bakeries, and later riots, arson and looting took place in many European cities. It was the worst famine of 19th-century Europe.

    The effects were widespread and lasted beyond the winter. In western Switzerland, the summers of 1816 and 1817 were so cool that an ice dam formed below a tongue of the Giétro Glacier high in the Val de Bagnes. Despite engineer Ignaz Venetz’s efforts to drain the growing lake, the ice dam collapsed catastrophically in June 1818.

    A North American historian wrote the following description of what he witnessed in North America: ‘Severe frosts occurred every month; June 7th and 8th snow fell, and it was so cold that crops were cut down, even freezing the roots …. In the early Autumn when corn was in the milk it was so thoroughly frozen that it never ripened and was scarcely worth harvesting. Breadstuffs were scarce and prices high and the poorer class of people were often in straits for want of food. It must be remembered that the granaries of the great west had not then been opened to us by railroad communication, and people were obliged to rely upon their own resources or upon others in their immediate locality.’

    Sarah’s article demonstrates the immense power of Nature and what can occur when humans interfere with it. Without vernal sunlight and essential heat on planet Earth, no food can be cultivated: organic life would shut down, predominantly. Space is extremely cold and dark, and a protracted ice age on Earth would be extremely cold with extensive loss of refracted and reflected sunlight.

    In 2014, a scientific research team found a fossil of one of the earliest known Europeans: a man who lived 36,000 years ago in Kostenki, western Russia. This sheds light on how humans survived the last Ice Age. Humans have endured and survived past protracted ice ages, but modern humans never have: they are not prepared for such a planetary change…

    Sarah possesses such an excellent and diverse mind: her articles take the reader into so many different spheres of biological and inanimate existence/evolution on our planet. She reminds me of Sir David Attenborough, in this context.

    Liked by 1 person

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